The last five years has seen the gradual unfolding of the United Kingdom as we know it, and there is now almost no doubt the "United Kingdom" is soon to be a thing of the past.
It comes as a recent poll in Wales has suggested that the backing for Welsh independence has reached an all time high. Around 40% of the Welsh adults surveyed expressed that they would vote for independence if there was a referendum. This is a dramatic increase on previous polls, as for many decades the figure has been consistent around 10%.
The most alarming outcome from the poll for the UK government to attend with is that the greatest level of support for independence lies with the youngest age groups. Clearly, the latest generations to emerge from adolescence believe that Wales would be better off without the controls of Westminster, which would suggest that it is only a matter of time until that figure of 40% pushes beyond the 50% that would certainly demand a referendum. This will no doubt begin to feel a little uncomfortable for those sitting pretty in Parliament as they recognise the realistic chance that soon Wales might be joining Scotland in an attempt to escape the grasps of Westminster.
Beyond just the recent poll, there is no shortage of momentum behind an independence charge. YesCymru is a non-party political campaign promoting independence for Wales, who currently have 29,000 out of the 50,000 signatures they are asking for to essentially prove that they have an 'army' of people that would vote yes in a referendum.
The likelihood is, however, if Wales came to a referendum within the next few years, it would be a battle between the ages, the young versus the old as to whether they should stay or they should leave. The left leaning youth would point to the UK falling apart, the division caused by Brexit, and the typical ignorance of those in London towards the devolved states. On the other hand, the less radical and right leaning older demographic would argue for the UK being one of the most successful economic and political unions in the world.
It is clear that MP's are uncomfortable. When Nicola Sturgeon renewed calls for Scottish Independence recently it was labelled as inconsiderate in the midst of a pandemic. Understandable perhaps, but the diversion away from the discussion is a demonstration of their fear. If Sturgeon wins her re-election in May, as she is expected to do, she has promised another referendum.
Now if both Wales and Scotland want to leave the United Kingdom, then how much is left of it? Even Northern Ireland wants out, to an extent, as a poll in January found that more half of the North want a vote on a united Ireland.
The political implications of a complete breakup of the United Kingdom would be colossal. It would require a complete restructuring of the interactions between the four nations of Great Britain, and in the midst of the new Brexit deal being implemented it would change everything.
Naturally, we can expect it to be a couple of years before anything major happens so that it gives time for Covid-19 and Brexit to die down, but certainly expect it to be something that dominates our news in the near future.
Would it be out of the question to call it quits on the United Kingdom? With both Wales and Scotland wanting out, don't be surprised if we see the end of the UK within the next decade or two, at least certainly in our lifetimes. The question is more 'when', rather than 'if'.
Guess we would have to scrap the UK part of UndefinedUK then. Nightmare.
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