In this series, we look around the world at crises largely unreported on by the Western media - this time, we turn to Eastern Africa, and the nation of Ethiopia, situated at the centre of one of the most volatile regions on the continent.
Ethiopia has an extremely violent history since it regained independence from Italy in 1947 - the highly diverse population has led to a great deal of conflict, both within the country, and with neighbouring countries, particularly Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea. Over 80 ethnicities exist within Ethiopia's borders, the largest being the Oromo, who reside in large parts of the south and west of the country, followed by the Amhara, who reside in the northeast Highlands, and the Tigray, who reside in the north, bordering Eritrea.
In the past 60 years alone, Ethiopia has experienced two wars with Eritrea, one with Somalia, a Communist genocide which killed half a million people, and numerous famines which killed millions more.
In the past two years, political unrest has sparked ethnic conflicts across the country - between the Oromo and the Somali, the Gedeo and the Oromo, and the Amhara and the Gumuz, to name a few. For just one example of the nature of these conflicts, Al Jazeera has described over 100 killed in border clashes between the Afar and Somali regions, which reportedly involved Somali forces "indiscriminately firing on locals", including women and children. As I'm sure you're beginning to see, this is a highly complex and violent region with many different groups in conflict.
The ongoing civil war between the Tigray, who until recently autocratically dominated Ethiopian politics, and the central government (which is now largely Oromo and Amhara), however, is currently by far the largest and most significant conflict of them all.
Tigray borders with Eritrea - it was the ruling Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) who engaged in two conflicts with the neighbouring country, the latter of which was ended by PM Abiy Ahmed in 2018 - winning him the Nobel Peace Prize. The Amhara and Oromo, led by Abiy, then took power and have since begun attempts to democratise Ethiopia by unifying the 10 regions which make up the country.
The government's actions, which include removing TPLF leaders from office and prosecuting them on corruption charges, are seen by the TPLF as a power grab which undermines the coalition agreed by all sides in 2018. They therefore pulled out altogether, and ever since, tensions between the two have been rising.
Things then started to boil over five months ago, after the central government postponed elections due to the pandemic - in response, the TPLF held their own, stating that they did not see the central government as legitimate. Following a TPLF attack on a government military base, Abiy ordered the ousting of the regional government in Tigray. He has allegedly got three groups - the Oromo, Amhara, and the Eritreans - to combine and take control of the region by force. Countless reports of violence from both sides have followed, including air strikes and intantry massacres.
The Telegraph has reported eyewitness testimony of Ethiopian federal soldiers and Eritrean troops going from house to house killing Tigrayan civilians, while local reports speak of some 500 Amhara killed by forces loyal to the TPLF in the town of Mai Kadra alone. The Guardian is reporting that the death toll of massacres on all sides totals almost 2,000 - the real number may well be far higher.
There are also credible reports of systematic ethnic cleansing, rape, and man-made starvation perpetrated by forces of both sides in the region. It seems the aim of PM Abiy Ahmed is not just to take control of Tigray, but to erase it and the people there from existence. Tigray identity cards are reportedly being swapped for those written in the Amharic language, and with an Amhara stamp, and crops are allegedly being destroyed, forcing the people to flee to neighbouring Sudan or face starvation.
TPLF forces are not free of guilt from accusations of ethnic cleansing against the Amhara either, with targeted massacres being widely reported, like that in Mai Kadra.
Abiy has admitted that atrocities have taken place in Tigray, though by all other accounts his government is desperately trying to maintain control of the narrative, restricting journalist access and imposing a communications blackout, which means our knowledge of what is really happening in Tigray is limited.
This is a conflict which has the potential to draw in much of the region if not resolved quickly - Eritrea is already involved, and given that many Tigrayans are fleeing to Sudan, it could too become entangled in this brutal civil war. Abiy has announced that Eritrean forces will withdraw from Tigray, but whether this will actually occur remains unclear.
The UN has already launched a probe into the alleged human rights violations, with the G7 also expressing concern, and calling for a peaceful resolution which is "acceptable to all Ethiopians". It is my worry that only Tigrayan independence will achieve this - something which the central government will certainly not want to concede. A fairer system, which prevents this senseless killing from all parties, is surely needed though, to stabilise the region and end the violence. One thing sadly remains likely - that this is not the last conflict Ethiopia will see.
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