In the midst of a fourth General Election in half as many years, we turn this time to the complex and volatile politics of Israel, where incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin ('Bibi') Netanyahu is desperately trying to gain a mandate to govern.
Unlike in the UK (with the possible exception of Northern Ireland), politics in Israel is dominated by religion. Parties are largely defined by their stance on religious issues - hard-line 'Zionists'* like Netanyahu's Likud Party, Yamina, and the Religious Zionist Party, tend to dominate electorally, alongside more centrist parties like Yesh Atid and Benny Gantz's Blue and White alliance.
* (by this term I EXCLUSIVELY refer to the political ideology of supporting a unified Israeli state which includes the area of Palestine - I do not express any opinions here about Judaism as a religion)
Since 2019, there has been a political deadlock in the country, after three successive elections failed to produce decisive results which Netanyahu nor Gantz could formulate a government out of. This fourth election looks to be just as tight - with Likud as the biggest party winning 30 seats, followed by Yesh Atid with 17. 61 seats, however, are needed for a majority in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, and when thirteen different parties/alliances have won seats, you begin to see just where the issue lies.
The election has been described by many as a referendum on Netanyahu himself, who is currently facing corruption charges, but has received some praise for the country's rapid vaccination scheme which has seen more than half of the population fully inoculated already. Though his Likud Party is seven seats down compared to the last election, it is still by far the largest - thus it will now initially be up to 'Bibi' to forge alliances and piece together the widely spread fragments of seats. This is where our electoral arithmetic comes in.
Netanyahu needs to find 31 more seats to form a government - his most obvious allies, naturally, are those ideologically similar to him, centre-right to right-wing Zionists, who he has attempted to come together with before. Accounting for this, he has 52 seats - 9 short of a majority. An ideologically diverse group of parties, united by their opposition to Netanyahu, and lead by Yair Lapid (who heads the Yesh Atid party), has 57 seats.
The remaining eleven (currently uncommitted) seats are held by two vastly different parties - one is Yamina, the alliance of right-wing parties lead by former Netanyahu ally Naftali Bennett, who hold seven seats; the other is the Islamic Arab Party Ra'am, lead by Mansour Abbas, which left the Arab Joint List alliance earlier this year - they have four seats.
Yamina look likely to support Likud, given that Bennett has already stated he will not join any government headed by Yair Lapid - and so it appears, somewhat ironically, that the balance of power in Jewish-dominated Israeli politics is held by staunch anti-Zionists Ra'am. The head of the Religious Zionist Party, Bezalel Smotrich, has already dismissed any possibility of a coalition between Netanyahu's crew and Abbas' party, and given that all other parties opposed to Netanyahu (despite vast ideological difference) have already committed as such, where does this lead?
Abbas could choose to throw his party's weight behind Lapid - this would give the bloc exactly 61 seats, just enough for a majority. But would such a politically diverse government work? It would be like Labour under Jeremy Corbyn going into coalition with Nigel Farage and the Lib Dems. Surely this could never work?
Or Abbas could broker a deal with Netanyahu, which he has entertained the idea of, on the condition that Netanyahu agrees to concessions relating to legal changes and extra funding for Arab municipalities. But this surely cannot work either - not only have the Religious Zionist Party ruled it out, but it would mean the collaboration of Ra'am with extreme, far-right parties like Otzma Yehudit (whose leader was formerly part of the Kach movement, designated a terrorist organisation by Israel, the EU, and others) and the openly homophobic Noam Party, who are both part of Bibi's bloc.
Reuven Hazan, a professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, has described the potential coalition between ultra-religious Jewish parties like this and the Islamic party Ra'am as needing a "Passover miracle":
“To put an Islamic party together with the two ultra-religious Jewish parties, this is going to be a Passover miracle. Ideologically, I think you’re stretching the envelope much, much too far.”
Netanyahu will have the opportunity first as the largest party to bargain with Abbas over a potential deal, and despite seeming impossible, I would be cautious to rule this one out completely - it may require a little divine intervention, and more than a little Netanyahu magic (or should I say, empty promises?) to make it happen, but never underestimate the lengths Bibi will go to in order to keep his grip on power. Even if it means making outrageous and contradictory pledges to both Otzma and Ra'am, and results in the inevitable worsening of what is already the worst Israeli political crisis in decades, he will stop at nothing to stay in office.
If he cannot persuade Abbas, or one of the more extreme groups in his clique leaves when he does, the onus will pass onto Yair Lapid to try and form a government. Even if he is successful, the resulting government will be desperately fragile and immobile - but at least Netanyahu will be out. Either way, the chances of another election in the near future are surely high, as the chaos looks to roll on for another cycle.
In the meantime, important policy questions remain unanswered - rising tensions between secular and ultra-orthodox Jews during the Coronavirus pandemic, and the ongoing Palestinian question, which has recently evaded the minds of politicians and news editors, but continues to be one of, if not the most difficult international situations anywhere.
If these issues are not addressed soon, and the fragmentation in Israeli politics persists, things will start to boil over again. Palestine and Iran are both due to hold elections this year, which could see militant groups like Hamas, designated as terrorists by much of the West, empowered in the region - largely in response to the controversial settlement policies of Netanyahu's government in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which Palestine claims ownership of.
Continued instability in Israel bodes poorly for those optimistic for peace in the Middle East; regardless of the outcome, this crisis needs to be resolved quickly - then domestic and international policy issues can be dealt with, and peaceful resolutions worked towards.
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