As the Prime Minister considers a reshuffle of his ministers, who are the likely candidates to go, and who will replace them?
Home Office - Priti Patel
Even considering her high-profile role, Patel has made a lot of headlines and caused many an argument on Twitter since her appointment two years ago - and rarely for the right reasons. Aside from her hardline approach on immigration, and apparent intent on dismantling freedom of speech through protest, her reputation has been damaged by accusations of bullying and expenses fraud.
The possibility of banishing Patel to the backbenches outright seems somewhat unlikely - though she would, I'm sure, be hesitant to accept a demotion to a less high-profile position. She will, however, be seldom reassured by the PM's recent support over migrant crossings, and will no doubt be sweating come decision day. Maybe negotiations with the French Interior Minister over preventing illegal crossings will ease her worries - only if he agrees to mow them all down, perhaps.
Would I be sad to see her go? Certainly not. But I'm not sure the alternatives are much better.
Widely tipped to replace her is Michael Gove, currently in the Cabinet Office, and who will no doubt be eager to return to the major roles and bag his first Great Office of State. Incredible images of the MP dancing uncontrollably at 2am in an Aberdeen nightclub seem not to have damaged his reputation - that's just what we expect of him now, I suppose.
Another potential would be Alok Sharma, if the reshuffle is delayed until after the COP26 summit, of which he has been appointed President. Johnson is said to be very fond of Sharma, who was formerly Business secretary, and could be willing to delay the reshuffle until later this year to facilitate a promotion for him in the form of a move to the Home Office.
Other options would include an unlikely promotion within the department for Kit Malthouse (Crime and Policing) or Damian Hinds (Security), or from outside in the form of Grant Shapps (Transport) or Robert Jenrick(Housing & Communities). All of these seem unlikely, however.
Foreign Office - Dominic Raab
After the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the revelation that he was on holiday in Crete at the time, Raab's position is surely untenable. Needless to say, he seems destined for a move downwards in this shuffle.
Ben Wallace (Defence) would typically be the first choice, were he too not embroiled in the Afghan fiasco - the same applies to James Cleverly (Middle East and North Africa), who was torn apart representing the Government on a Question Time special on Afghanistan.
The most likely replacement seems to be Liz Truss, who has been vying for a top spot in the Cabinet for years. Though she would undoubtedly prefer a move to the Exchequer, given the popularity of a certain Rishi Sunak this is currently not possible - and Foreign Secretary would certainly be a sizeable promotion for the current International Trade Minister.
Education - Gavin Williamson
The final, and most likely, major departure in this upcoming reshuffle is in education. Finally, FINALLY, after the shambolic exams fiasco in 2020 which caused havoc for thousands of young people, and damaging changes to the curriculum which rewrite history, allow misogyny to persist, and censor free thought, the final straw has finally been drawn.
Williamson, it has just been reported, was convinced he spoke with footballer Marcus Rashford via Zoom, describing him as "engaged, compassionate, and charming". In fact, he met with rugby player Maro Itoje. Incredible.
He now looks firmly set on a one-way course out of his ministerial role, and hopefully to the backbenches - though he allegedly has in his possession a 'black book' of party secrets from his time as Chief Whip, which could serve as a bargaining chip to save him from serious demotion.
How he has managed to cling onto his job for this long is beyond me. "The Luckiest Man in Britain" - I wrote this article in FEBRUARY. How has it taken this long to give Williamson the sack? Boris only knows.
I honestly don't care who replaces him. I'd even take Gove at this point. The favourite seems to be Kemi Badenoch, currently Equalities Minister, who has worked in the Education Department before. Maybe she can do something to undo the abuse Gavin Williamson has subjected the British education system to over his two year tenure.
Plenty of news regarding these, and undoubtedly more, will follow in the coming weeks. As mentioned above, the PM may hold off on this until after COP26, potentially even in the New Year. For the sake of students everywhere, let's hope it's sooner rather than later.
UPDATE:
Reshuffle CONFIRMED for today. Here are the rumours:
Most recent sources saying Williamson is GONE and headed to Northern Ireland (commiserations to any Northern Irish readers), with Oliver Dowden to replace him in Education.
Gove could be headed to the Foreign Office to replace Raab instead of Liz Truss.
Patel apparently keeping her place in the Home Office.
Simon Hart also out in Wales, with Craig Williams to replace him.
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